This website does not support Internet Explorer, your current browser.
Please view the site with a modern browser such as Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox.
Security guarantees
Overview of the Evidence
Our research review includes 5 reports that address the effects of security guarantees on closely related outcomes, such as civilian killings, human rights violations, and conflict recurrence. We did not find any studies meeting our inclusion criteria that addressed the effects of security guarantees on mass atrocities. Our research review found the following:
- A mix of findings as to whether security guarantees were effective in helping prevent mass atrocities or closely related outcomes, and
- Limited evidence on which specific factors contribute to the effectiveness of security guarantees in helping prevent mass atrocities or closely related outcomes.
About Security guarantees
Definition
Security guarantees are “any implicit or explicit promise given by an outside power to protect” particular parties to a conflict (Walter 1997, p. 345). They can be “positive,” meaning a promise to come to a party’s aid, or “negative,” meaning a promise to refrain from attack or using specific weapons (Freeman 2003). They are often offered during peace negotiations or mediation efforts to draw parties to the negotiation table or agree to a peace agreement.
Theory of Change
If security guarantees convince potential combatants to refrain from armed conflict, they would reduce the likelihood of mass atrocities because armed conflict is the strongest risk factor for mass atrocities (Bellamy 2011; Straus 2016, p. 55). If security guarantees signal to potential perpetrators that international actors are willing to exact costs for the commission of mass atrocities, they would reduce the likelihood or severity of mass atrocities.